Due to the way VisitBritain compiles its statistics using visitor surveys, there is always a time lag in data being published. On top of that, inbound tourism data from the International Passenger Survey is not available for 2025 due to a change in methodology. It is therefore difficult to understand current trends in Scottish tourism using official tourism data.
It is generally understood that tourism to Scotland has been in rude health, benefiting from significant growth in recent years from international, notably European and North American visitors, and enjoying a recent resurgence in domestic tourism.
But does the data confirm that, and is it still the case in 2026 with significant headwinds of cost of living and geopolitical uncertainty, notably since the start of the Iran war in February?
For context, total visitor nights to Scotland in 2024 were reported by VisitBritain to be almost 13.7% (or over 9 million nights) below 2023, with significant declines in both domestic and inbound tourism. More positively, domestic visitor nights are reported to have increased by 2.4% in 2025, but there is no indication of the trend in international visitors.
The level of decline in 2024 is not reflected in other data sources such as hotel and short-term let market performance and airport passenger numbers, albeit these do not provide a complete picture as they don’t include many small independent hotels and guest houses, camping / camper vans, holiday parks, student accommodation and those staying with friends and family.
They do however offer a more “real time” picture of the state of Scottish tourism and we have used them to gain some insight into the recent and current situation.
Hotel Performance
According to CoStar hotel performance data for Scotland (511 hotels across the country), demand (rooms sold) increased by 3.1% in 2024 and has increased further by 0.7% in 2025 and 1.7% in June 2026 year to date (YTD). Edinburgh, Glasgow and Inverness in particular continue to receive very high levels of demand.
As a further positive sign of robust demand, average daily rate (ADR) across the hotels increased by 8.8% in 2024, 3.2% in 2025 and 5.5% in June 2026 YTD.
ADR growth since the pandemic has been largely attributed to increases in leisure tourism (versus business travelers on preferential corporate rates) and in particular growth in affluent inbound visitors.
Short-term rentals
Lighthouse reports the supply of, and demand for short-term rental properties listed on the three main sites (booking.com, vrbo, Airbnb).
Data for Scotland shows that whilst the number of listings has increased steadily since 2023, demand (measured by nights sold) declined materially, by about one million in total (just over 12%) from 2023 to 2025. This could account for a proportion of the decline in visitors in 2024, but not to the extent reported by VisitBritain.
Demand has stabilized in June 2026 YTD, 1.0% more nights sold than in the same period of 2025.
Airport Passengers
The two main gateway airports in Scotland continue to show strong growth in passenger numbers, albeit it is not known how much of the traffic is outbound UK tourists and Scottish business travellers.
Edinburgh Airport passengers increased by 17.9% from 2023 to 2025 and by 5.8% in May 2026 YTD, while Glasgow Airport passengers increased by 11.5% from 2023 to 2025 and by 4.1% in May 2026 YTD.
Conclusions and Outlook
Whilst short-term let data confirms a decline in the volume of tourism to Scotland in 2024 and suggests further decline in 2025, other metrics showed continued growth.
That all metrics are increasing in the first half of 2026 is a very positive indicator for a strong year for the sector.
Whilst geopolitical uncertainty remains a very real pressure on international travel, Scotland’s broad appeal and a reported resurgence in domestic tourism due to that same uncertainty is a strong counter-balance. The same could be said of climate tourism, with Scotland now a very attractive antidote to the extreme heat that is becoming a regular summer feature across continental Europe.
Both major airports are continuing to add to their routes, particularly from long haul destinations, increasing the global reach of Scotland. Edinburgh Airport forecasts annual passenger numbers of 20m within the next three or four years (from just under 17m in 2025).
One question is the potential impact (particularly on the visitor accommodation sector) of the visitor levy, introduced fully in Edinburgh in July 2026, and set to be rolled out by other local authorities in the coming years. Whilst it is very early and one month’s data doesn’t indicate a trend, very positively for Edinburgh hotels both occupancy and ADR increased in July against the same period of last year, indicating no impact of the levy initially. What happens in the coming months in the low season will be interesting; watch this space!
If you would like more information on this article, our services or to discuss your project, contact Andrew Renouf at andrew@arhospitalityconsulting.co.uk or on +44 7584 186520.